How should Chase hopefuls strategize in best race of the year?
Daytona has the prestige. Indy has the history. Bristol has the passion. Miami has the championship. But for my money, Race 26 at Richmond is the best race of the year.
The track is great, with side-by-side racing the rule rather than the exception, and when you add the drama of the impending Chase it makes for a unique event. Four drivers are in NASCAR’s playoffs already—and don’t be surprised if our winner comes from that group—but that leaves 11 with a shot at one of the eight remaining spots (although David Reutimann would need a heck of a lot of good luck, plus a career-best run.) When the NFL’s regular season comes down to its final day with that many possibilities, you know it’s been a pretty good year, and the same is true with NASCAR.
But despite all that, for most of the so-called "bubble" drivers, Saturday night’s task is actually pretty straightforward: Avoid disaster. Everyone from fifth-place Carl Edwards down to 11th-place Greg Biffle simply needs a good run. Edwards needs only a 24th-place run to clinch, Kasey Kahne needs 21st, and Kurt Busch 20th.
But remember: Those numbers suppose Brian Vickers, currently 13th, leads the most laps and wins. It’s more likely Kyle Busch will take 195 points out of Richmond than Vickers, and Kyle is 17 points further back, giving everyone a few more places of cushion. That’s why Juan Montoya and Ryan Newman are likely in with top 20s (18th and 16th are the official numbers), and Mark Martin and Greg Biffle are likely in with top 15s (12th and 11th if Vickers maxes out).
So for the drivers ranked fifth through 11th, worrying about anybody else is simply a distraction. Get your car right, and don’t take any chances. Fourteen-second stops with the proper adjustments and no mistakes will beat risky 13-second stops for these teams. And the drivers have no reason to push it out on the track. There’s enough room at Richmond to get back to the front if your car is handling, so you don’t need anything too off-the-wall unless you really have problems.
Of course, problems could certainly crop up on this fast, wide short-track. Turn 2 is a difficult spot where drivers often get into the wall—and into other drivers—although we’ve certainly seen multiple cars spinning down the long, curving front-stretch, as well. The race averages just north of 10 cautions, with plenty of beating and banging. Plus there are loose wheels, speeding penalties, blown tires or what we saw at Atlanta, bad handling problems, lurking to trip those guys up. All the teams will likely have one person assigned simply to watch Vickers and Busch so that if something goes wrong, everyone will know what has to be done. But other than that, it doesn’t make sense for any of the aforementioned drivers to base their race strategy on the 83 or 18 cars.
Matt Kenseth, Vickers and Kyle Busch are in a different situation. Kenseth likely needs at least a top-five run to clinch, and the way he’s been running since the first two races of the season, that doesn’t look easy. Richmond used to be a good track for him, but since the introduction of this racecar, the short tracks just don’t seem to suit him. Vickers and Busch need to make up points, and Matt is the most vulnerable. Brian will need a career-best run, and as good as Kyle is here and on the short tracks in general (he won Richmond in May and is three-for-four on everything under a mile this season), he can certainly go out and win this race. Essentially, these are the guys racing head-to-head for that last spot, at least when the night begins. For each of these three, I think it does pay to monitor what the other two are doing all race long, and perhaps, in the last half of the race, they should make a strategy call depending on how the competition is running.
There’s a big part of me that thinks the final spot or two in the Chase field will come via a wreck by one of these guys. And at Richmond that could happen to anybody.
Bass Masters is a co-host of Rowdy.com. For the best NASCAR community on the internet go to Rowdy.com.
